By Ryan Altizer -- With 10 weeks in the books and just seven left to go, things are really starting to take shape in the AFL playoff race.
Two teams – Chicago and Philadelphia – can actually clinch playoff spots this week. One team’s (Philly’s) quest for perfection is over, while another’s (Utah’s) quest for its first win was finally realized.
But just as some things are starting to come into focus, there are other pieces of this AFL puzzle that just don’t seem to fit yet. The great question of whether anyone other than Chicago actually merits making the playoffs in the American Conference has already been debated at length, and which unlucky teams will miss the playoff cut in the crowded National Conference is also a source of much speculation.
But perhaps the biggest question mark still hanging out there in this baffling season lies in the Southern Division.
Predictably, the always tough-as-nails Southern Division is likely to be the last one to crown a champion. Every time you think a team is ready to step up and take over (hello, New Orleans!), they get taken down a notch by a pesky division rival.
There is no other division in the Arena Football League that beats up on itself so fiercely. Sure, the Eastern Division with sexy picks Philly and Dallas and the surprising Cleveland Gladiators steal all the headlines, but the teams down south consistently deliver the most drama on a week-to-week basis.
Consider if you will, the last two weeks. Coming off back-to-back wins, the VooDoo seemed primed to maintain its one-game division lead before being ambushed by the down-but-never-out Georgia Force last week. Meanwhile, Orlando blew its chance to have the top spot when it stubbed its toe against bitter rival Tampa Bay two weeks ago. That win gave the Storm, just 3-6 overall, a 2-1 mark in the division and new life in the playoff chase.
With seven weeks left, New Orleans and Orlando are tied atop the division with 7-3 records. Meanwhile, Georgia (4-5) and Tampa (3-6) lurk behind... never fully out of the picture.
So what’s going to shake out here?
New Orleans would seem to have the easier road down the stretch, since they’ve already faced Dallas, Philly and Cleveland, but only three of their remaining seven games are at home, and the VooDoo is clearly a much scarier team in The Graveyard than on the road.
Orlando’s schedule is clearly more daunting, as they have to play at Cleveland and Tampa, while also having to host Dallas.
But the biggest game on both teams’ schedules is clearly the Week 16 matchup between the two in Orlando. New Orleans won the first meeting by a mere point at home in The Graveyard. You better believe The Jungle will be rocking for what may amount to a division title game in the rematch.
Because of that game taking place in Orlando, I like the Predators to end up winning the division. When you look at the last eight weeks, the boys in black have as good a record as anyone else in the league, and they are a veteran team that will not be intimidated come playoff time.
So with so much going for them, how come no one seems to talk about the Predators when the conversation turns to ArenaBowl contenders? Did we all not learn our lesson two years ago when a grossly underappreciated Orlando squad went to Dallas and shocked the heavily favored Desperados to advance to ArenaBowl XX?
Preds coach Jay Gruden has made a career out of sneaking up on people, getting to ArenaBowls and even winning championships when no one else has seen it coming.
This season certainly seems to fit that mold. Philadelphia, Chicago and Dallas get all the pub, while Orlando quietly puts together a very good season. It certainly seems like Gruden has everyone right where he wants them.
Of course, it will not be easy. In addition to that bear of a schedule I mentioned, the Predators also find themselves with somewhat of a quarterback controversy. Starter Shane Stafford was pulled in last week’s win over San Jose in favor of backup Jake Eaton. If Gruden can’t get that situation settled soon, it could certainly derail any title hopes the Preds might have.
Still, despite its flaws, this Orlando team is one that should not be taken lightly. The old saying goes that those who do not learn from the past are destined to repeat it. Consider the rest of the league warned.
Ryan Altizer has more than 10 years in sports communications, including six seasons in Arena Football. He spent four years (1998-2001) with the original Nashville Kats organization as Director of Communications, accompanying the team to ArenaBowls XIV and XV. After three years in college athletics, as the Director of External Affairs for the Ohio Valley Conference, he rejoined the new Kats franchise in 2004 and spent the 2005 and 2006 seasons as the team's Director of Marketing and Communications.