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Fantasy: Avoiding Letdowns
Courtesy: Michael Murillo
          Release: 05/10/2006
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Courtesy: Lynn Bass
Look for WR/LB Derek Lee to step up as the Force face Philly in a must-win matchup.

By Michael Murillo -- Guys like Clint Dolezel, Terrill Shaw and Randy Gatewood will probably have huge games - in the playoffs. But that’s more than a week away, and with Week 16 still on the schedule, that could create obstacles for fantasy players.

 

While you’re ready to start the “best of the best,” some teams might be looking to play the “rest of the rest.” Remember, there are no bye weeks in the AFL season. If teams want to give players extra time off before the playoffs, it’s now or never. And even if the stars do play, their best efforts might be reserved for the post-season.

 

Here are some fantasy Supermen who might act more like Clark Kent this weekend:

 

* Dallas Desperados—The Desperados had some important goals to accomplish this season: Win their division, get a bye and earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. But after accomplishing all of that, their main goal might be not to suffer any injuries in Week 16.

 

While fantasy players have relied on guys like QB Clint Dolezel (4,417 yards, 99 TDs, 11 INTs and three rushing TDs), OS Terrill Shaw (102 receptions, 1,417 yards, 34 TDs and two rushing TDs), WR/DB Will Pettis (93 receptions, 1,256 yards and 26 TDs) and WR/LB Dialleo Burks (87 receptions, 1,055 yards, 28 TDs and one rushing TD), Week 16 might be a good time to give them a rest. With nothing to gain and everything to lose, it’s hard to imagine the team giving a playoff-caliber effort against the New York Dragons.

 

 

* Arizona Rattlers—The Rattlers are in the playoffs, but they have no shot at a first-round bye. Even if they finish the season tied with San Jose, getting swept by the SaberCats guarantees they’ll be playing in Week 17. And since Arizona’s record already gives them a home game in the playoffs, what’s left to play for?

 

It could be momentum, or perhaps an opportunity to beat one of the top teams in the conference (Colorado). But the team will more than likely be focused on the post-season, and that means fantasy players should consider avoiding a great player like WR/DB Randy Gatewood (81 receptions, 1,066 yards and 33 TDs). The risks could outweigh the rewards in Week 16.

 

* Las Vegas Gladiators—Las Vegas can still make the playoffs if they win and Utah and Chicago both lose. So if they’re still alive, the team could put up some impressive numbers against Los Angeles.

 

Unfortunately, they’ll already know their fate by the time they play on Saturday night—Chicago and Utah both play on Friday. Since most fantasy lineups have to be turned in by the time the first game is played, fantasy players can’t afford to risk playing Gladiators when their playoff hopes could be dashed by the time they take the field.  

 

Fantasy Focus Week 16: Philadelphia Soul at Georgia Force—For AFL fans who love a playoff-type atmosphere, this game fits the bill. Both teams will make the post-season with a win on Saturday.

 

For the Force, that means taking the first step toward a return to Las Vegas. Guys like QB Matt Nagy (3,996 passing yards, 81 TDs, eight INTs and five rushing TDs), OS Chris Jackson (112 receptions, 1,377 yards, 35 TDs and one rushing TD) and WR/LB Derek Lee (117 receptions, 1,293 yards and 24 TDs) will be going all-out to secure a playoff spot. DS Chris D. Brown (99 solo tackles, four INTs and three defensive TDs) also warrants fantasy attention. If losing last year’s ArenaBowl was a disappointment, not making the playoffs in 2006 would be worse. Fantasy players can expect a strong effort this weekend.

 

Philadelphia welcomed QB Tony Graziani (2,784 yards, 40 TDs, 10 INTs and two rushing TDs) back into the starting line-up, and he responded with a much-needed win against Dallas in Week 15. Paced by Graziani, who had 317 passing yards, six passing TDs and one rushing TD, and DS Eddie Moten, who had eight unassisted tackles and three interceptions, the Soul are one win away from a playoff berth. While the team has never made the post-season in its history, expectations were high for the 2006 season and a win would be a big boost for the franchise.

 

If they’re going to make it, guys like OS Steve Smith (83 receptions, 953 yards and 14 TDs) and WR/DB Sean Scott (81 receptions, 919 yards, 16 TDs, 94 rushing yards and six rushing TDs) will need to step up. WR/DB Mike Brown (74 receptions, 917 yards, 13 TDs, 85 rushing yards and four rushing TDs) could also be a strong fantasy contributor.

While these aren’t necessarily the guys that fantasy players normally start every week, they all need a win in Week 16. That kind of desperation often leads to good statistical performances, and fantasy players looking for different options should consider taking advantage of the situation.

Michael Murillo was a contributor to arenafootball.com in 2005, and has written a fantasy football column at Fantasyindex.com for the past six years. You can reach him at vivamurillo@hotmail.com.  

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